Dino View : Will it come to war?

Legate Dralson, ex-Dino Army and Security Council

The sabre rattling and tension is rising as the Clones appear to be about to try and enlarge their empire at the expense of the Eritran Free States. The DDS have been caught in a bind and are trying to prevent the invasion but at the same time are trying to avoid a war against the Clones.

Really the DDS are not obligated to do anything, the Eritrans are not DDS allies though they are among the DDS' best customers especially the Molab. However the DDS know that a resurgent Clone Star Empire that regains the taste for conquest will be very dangerous indeed especially now there is the elephant in the room called the Clone Space Missile.

The Clones have a working inter-stellar missile that can strike and destroy targets on Proxima 7 (i.e. DDS GHQ) and beyond. It has been called the game-changer before, by DDS officers themselves, which is why the DDS are investing a lot in their own LRM system. However that system is years away and the Clone system is in place now.

Of course that doesn't mean it will be used. It exists as the ultimate deterrent but the Clones know that if they used it to attack the DDS and UNP then the DDS would be reducing Clone cities to atomic dust as well. The DDS may not have LRM yet but their MRM cruise missiles can do a pretty good job. A war between the DDS and Clones would have to remain regional and limited because of the threat of mutual destruction.

Where can the line be drawn though? What if the DDS chew up a good portion of the HCS fleet, could HCS hawks then seize the ultimate weapon to strike back? We are into a very dangerous situation indeed.

DDS go on war footing

The DDS have activated plans to go on a full war footing ahead of an expected HCS invasion of the Eritran Free States (though the alert level remains at ORANGE for now). Measures include :

• TPM production stepped up to second-highest rate
• DDS bases restricted to essential authorised personnel and security stepped up
• Unessential visits and training missions cancelled by fleet
• Aviation assets dispersed and CAP increased over GHQ and Solaris
• All leave cancelled and personnel have been recalled

The DDS Ruling Council will also meet (via secure video link) later today to discuss the DDS' response to HCS aggression and any future actions.

Clones halt arms sales to DDS

The Clones have not replied to AP's warning that the HCS would have to "come through" the DDS if they want to invade the Eritrans however they have halted all arms sales to the DDS. This mostly includes aircraft with a number of COIN and transport types recently equipping the DDS Air Force. The Clones said that because of the "tense situation" unnecessary transportation must be postponed however one observer has noted this hasn't halted arms sales to Triple Megan as a transport loaded with tanks and other armoured vehicles was detected heading there earlier today.

The DDS have said they are not at war with the Clones and consider their orders for outstanding equipment still  valid but it is known that the DDS have begun looking for alternative sources.

• Director of Operations Knobhead has said the DDS is going to conduct a fleet strength review over the next few weeks. It will look at present and projected ship totals in the fleet and whether it matches current and projected requirements. There is already a feeling in the DDS that more heavy combat ships are required.
• The January Sunshine deployment has ended after some successful EW attack training sorties. The next training deployment for later in February has been postponed because of the Clone-Eritran situation.

AP clarifies DDS support for Eritrans

DDS Commander AP, who has remained on Starbot, today made a public statement to the DDS and beyond (it is known that the statement was carried live on Clone TV News) where he clarified what DDS support for the Eritrans actually means. Over recent days several commentators have asked what the DDS would do if the HCS attack the Eritrans including our own Professor Wayne King-Meiouf and AP tried to address the uncertainty.

AP said, "The Eritrans are not members of the UNP or DDS but they are our friends and we will stand by them. If the Clones do, as is rumoured, attack the Eritrans then we will send a fleet to intercept. If the HCS want to enter Eritran space then they'll have to come through us. The DDS will not fire the first shot but we will respond to any aggression with the full might of our weaponry."

Later on Director of Operations Knobhead clarified that the DDS will not shoot first, he acknowledged that it was a risk but said "I am confident our shields can hold up to an opening salvo from the Clones, the Clones should not be confident they can hold up to a returning salvo of TPMs and Z-cannon."

• The Clones are accusing the DDS of launching an info-attack on Woloron 12's orbital station. The space  station's sensors and communications network was disabled for a few hours yesterday forcing all but the most vital operations to be halted. A virus was found to have entered the base's systems and was removed. The DDS have denied any involvement.
• Ronald has announced he will tour the DTA starting later in the month. He will visit Sirikwan, Yeng and the Voth and then do some exploring in the presently little explored territory beyond Voth and Bolitic space. Ronald is hoping new allies can be found out there, maybe new DTA members one day. 

Wayne King-Meiouf : The most important question hasn't been asked yet

Professor Wayne King-Meiouf of the University of Proxima

The DDS is buzzing with high level meetings and briefings. The DDS have yet to publicly say how they will react to a HCS invasion of the Free Eritran States but i understand the DDS will give its support, hence the ships and troops being sent to Starbot.

However the main question hasn't been asked, what does "support" mean? As i understand it the only thing the DDS have committed to at the moment is to intercept any HCS force and then try and persuade them to turn back. OK thats fair enough, but what if the Clones (who have spent the last few months assembling a mighty invasion force, spending vast amounts of time on planning, war-gaming and strategy) say no? After all i have a sneaking suspicion they won't say "Oh very well lets go home."

So will the DDS go to war on behalf of the Eritrans or will they simply move aside and let the HCS through? It is highly unlikely the DDS will fight the Clones, the DDS arn't geared up for a mega-war (and the 4th Clone War would be lets not kid ourselves). Unfortunately for the DDS the Clones probably know that too so trying to bluff them isn't going to work.

Assuming Molab also send forces to join the DDS at the interception point what happens if the Molabites start firing? Are the DDS just going to get out of the way? What if the HCS open fire on the DDS? We are facing the most serious astral-political crisis since the ABBO War and yet no one in the DDS truly seems to know what to do or what will happen next? Its a very scary place to be.

HCS assembling invasion fleet

The DDS has raised its alert status to ORANGE following intelligence (thought to be by a Panther 35A equipped with the reconnaissance pod) that a fleet of around 40 ships is now assembled at Woloron 12 and appears to be preparing for departure.

The DDS say the fleet consists of combat types like the Soulaki and Cosmos as well as ships in the amphibious warfare fleet as well as transports. The DDS have called on the HCS not to do anything rash. Molab has mobilised its entire armed forces and the Eritran nations are expected to do the same. If the HCS depart then it is estimated they will be at the Molab border within 6 days though only 4 if some of the slower transports follow on in a second wave.

• The DDS have opened the door for continuation of Indy 35B production beyond the 9 currently on order (5 having been built and a 6th currently undergoing final proving trials). The possibility has been raised after the Raegris said they are considering buying 2-3 of the type to supplement their Quasars. If the Raegris did go ahead with an order then the production line would be kept open long enough that future funding for extra Indies after the Raegris order was completed (in say 2114-5) might be possible.